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  3. 共用题干 EL NinoWhile some forecasting methods had limited success predicting th...

共用题干 EL NinoWhile some forecasting methods had limited success predicting th...

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问题 共用题干
EL Nino

While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 EL Nino（厄尔尼诺现象，指赤
道东太平洋南美沿岸海水温度剧烈上升的现象。) a few months in advance , the Columbia University
researchers say their method can predict large EL Nino events up to two years in advance.That would be
good news for governments,farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that EL
Nino can produce in various parts of the world.
Using a computer,the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later EL Nino occurrences（发
生）between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate EL Nino events dating back to 1857,using prior
sea-surface temperatures.The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature.
The researchers say their method is not perfect , but Bryan C. Weare , a meteorologist（气象学家）at the
University of California,Davis,who was not involved in the work,said it"suggests EL Nino is indeed
predictable".
"This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods,"said Weare.He
added that the new method " makes it possible to predict EL Nino at long lead（提前的）times ". Other
models also use sea-surface temperatures,but they have not looked as far back because they need other data,
which is only available for recent decades,Weare said.
The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance.The 1997 EL
Nino , for example , caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide , offset（抵消）by beneficial effects
in other areas,said David Anderson,of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in
Reading , England. The 1877 EL Nino , meanwhile , coincided（同时发生）with a failure of the Indian monsoon
and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China,prompting the development of seasonal
forecasting,Anderson said.
When EL Nino hit in 1991 and 1997,200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone,
according to a 2002 United Nations report.
While predicting smaller EL Nino events remains tricky（复杂的）, the ability to predict larger ones
should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.
EL Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and
February.The warming tends to last between 9 and 1 2 months and occurs every two to seven years.
The new forecasting method does not predict any major EL Nino events in the next two years,although a
weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
选项 Predicting smaller EL Nino events is possible if the new method is confirmed.
A:Right
B:Wrong
C:Not mentioned
答案B
解析利用题干句中的特征词Columbia University researchers作为线索，发现相关句“…the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large EL Nino events up to two years in advance.”题干句说“提前几个月”，而原文说“最远能提前两年”，由此可见题干句的内容中有 与原文不一致的地方，" a few months in advance”是一个从其他句子中借来的干扰信息，因此判 断题干句不正确。
利用题干句中出现的特征词Weare作为线索查找原文，发现3个相关句，都集中在第3 和第4自然段，但是这些涉及Weare的句子在内容上都没有讲述他是否在预测厄尔尼诺现象 方面做出了贡献，也没有提到他的贡献是否得到了其他气象学家的高度赞扬。由此判断此题 干所述没提到。
利用题干句的特征词Weare作为线索，发现文中相关句“The researchers say their method is not perfect , but Bryan C.Weare , …”可知Columbia University的研究成果并不是目前最 好的预测方法。
利用题干句的特征词1991 and 1997作为线索，发现文中相关句“When EL Nino hit in 1991 and 1997,200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone,according to a 2002 United Nations report.”因此并不是“According to a Chinese report"，由此判断题干句不正确。
利用题干句中关键词1997和＄20 billion为线索，发现相关句“The 1997 EL Nino,for example , caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide …"。题干句的内容与原文一致，因 此判断该句的说法正确。
该题干句内容和结构都较简单，关键词是eight months和peak，借助它们作为线索，找 到倒数第二段的两个相关句，可以推出EL Nino需要大约8个月达到峰值，因此判断该句的说 法正确。
利用题干句的特征词smaller EL Nino作为线索，发现文中相关句“While predicting smaller EL Nino events remains tricky , the ability to predict larger ones…"，故题干句的内容与原 文有悖。第3部分：概括大意与完成句子
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