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  3. 共用题干 第一篇Forecasting MethodsThere are several different methods that can be u...

共用题干 第一篇Forecasting MethodsThere are several different methods that can be u...

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问题 共用题干
第一篇

Forecasting Methods

There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
选项 The analog method should not be used in making a weather forecast when________.
A: the current weather scenario is different from the analog
B:the analog looks complicated
C:the analog is more than 10 years old
D:the current weather scenario is exactly the same as the analog
答案A
解析由文章第一段第二句话“The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.”可知答案。
由文章第二段最后一句话“However , if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.”可 知答案。
由第三段倒数第二句话“The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.”可知答案。
由最后一段第二句话“It involves examining today ' s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked veiy similar ( an analog).”可知答案。
由第四段前两句“The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast.This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the fore- cast.”和最后一段前两句“The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar ( an analog).”可知气候学方法和类比法这两种天气预报法 都需要以往的天气方面的数据。
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