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  3. 共用题干 第三篇Oil and EconomyCould the bad old days of economic decline be about t...

共用题干 第三篇Oil and EconomyCould the bad old days of economic decline be about t...

admin2020-12-24  12
问题 共用题干
第三篇

Oil and Economy

Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return?Since OPEC agreed to supplycuts in March,the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel,up from less than$10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock,when prices quadrupled,and 1979一1980,when they also almost tripled.Both previous shocks resulted in double一digit inflation and global economic decline.So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports.Strengthening economic growth,at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere,could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s.In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s.In Europe,taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price,so even quite big changes in the price of crude oil have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were,and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price.Energy conservation,a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.Software,consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production.For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices)rich economies now use nearly 50%less oil than in 1973.The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that,if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year,compared with $13 in 1998,this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.S%of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980.On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economies一to which heavy industry has shifted一have become more energy一intensive,and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that,unlike the rises in the 1970s,it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline.The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%,and in 1979 by almost 30%.
选项 The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries______.
A:heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
B:income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
C:manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
D:oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP
答案D
解析根据题干可以定位到第一段的第二句话“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March,the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel,up from less than$10 last December"，说明由于石油输出国决定降低供给量，使得油价上升。所以本题的答案是B选项。D选项不是该现象的主要原因，因为OPEC的相关决定才是能够影响石油价格的走势的主要原因。
根据题干可以定位到第三段的第三句话“In Europe , taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price,so even quite big changes in the price of crude oil have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past"，意思是说“在欧洲，税占汽油的零售价的4/5，因此相比以往，原油的价格变化对汽油零售价的影响不会很明显”。也就是说，税的增加会导致汽油价格的猛涨，而原油价格的变化带来的影响不会很大。本题的一个理解难点是“muted effect "，另外一个是“pump price "。 " mute”表示“哑巴的，无声的，沉默的”，和“effect”连用，表示 “影响不明显”；而“pump price”是一个很形象的说法，" pump”指的是“泵”，这里很形象地用 " pump”指代“汽油零售”。根据上述分析，可以得出答案是D选项。
根据本题的关键词“《经济展望》的估计”可以定位到“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that,if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year,compared with $13 in 1998,this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0 .25％一 0.5% of GDP"，也就是说，油价的上涨对GDP的影响很小，只有“0.25%—0.5%”。因此我们可以得出答案为D选项。
本题的几个选项需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出“油价的经济影响不会那么严重”，作者指出其原因是原油价格占汽油价格的比例不高，发达国家对石油的依赖减弱，此次涨价的背景不一样了。文章最后一段说这次油价上涨与20世纪70年代的上涨不同，对各国的影响也基本没有反映出来，连物价都基本没有变动，也就是说，油价冲击已经不是那么可怕。所以答案是A选项。
本文作者主要讲的就是这次油价上涨的影响不大。尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句话，强调人们不必担心此次油价上涨，因为这一次的情况与“20世纪70年代” 不同。由此可见作者的态度是“乐观的”。
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